The Colorado River is a critical water source for 40 million people across the United States and Mexico. But with persistent drought and growing demand, the river system is under serious strain—and now, researchers say dust may be speeding up its decline even further.
A new study led by the University of Utah reveals that dust deposited on mountain snowpacks is causing snow to melt faster than previously realized, depleting the water supply that fuels the 1,450-mile-long river. Since most of the Colorado’s water comes from snowmelt in its upper basin, the discovery could significantly change how water managers forecast runoff and allocate water.
The research, published in The American Journal of Human Genetics, is the first to quantify the widespread impact of dust on snowmelt across the river’s headwaters. By analyzing 23 years of satellite imagery from April and May—the peak of the melt season—scientists found that even small amounts of dust significantly reduce snow’s reflectivity, or albedo. This leads to increased solar absorption and accelerates melting.
“Dust can speed up melting by as much as one millimeter of water per hour when the sun is strongest,” said lead author Patrick Naple, a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Utah. “Even that small increase can cause snow to vanish weeks earlier than it otherwise would.”
The team used daily satellite data from NASA’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard the Terra satellite to map how dust darkens the snow surface. Advanced algorithms calculated the energy absorbed and the resulting melt rates, revealing that dust is a consistent and powerful driver of early snowmelt—even in years with relatively low dust levels.
Most dust reaching the Rocky Mountains originates from the Colorado Plateau, where spring winds kick up reddish soil and carry it long distances before depositing it on snow-covered slopes. This dust disrupts the snowpack’s natural ability to reflect sunlight, turning it into a sponge for solar energy.
Until now, snowmelt models have largely ignored the role of dust. That’s a problem for water managers who depend on accurate predictions to time releases from reservoirs, plan irrigation schedules, and manage supply for cities and agriculture.
“The degree of snow darkening has been linked to forecasting errors, which can have serious downstream effects,” said McKenzie Skiles, associate professor at the University of Utah and co-lead author of the study. “If snow melts earlier than expected, and the ground is still frozen, farmers might not be able to use that water. Reservoir managers can store it—but only if they know it’s coming.”
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While dust-driven melt was strongest in the central-southern Rocky Mountains at mid-elevations, the researchers noted that it occurred basin-wide, across multiple states. Surprisingly, they also found that dust-driven melt was slightly more intense during the first half of the study period (2001–2013) than in the second half (2014–2021), despite worsening drought conditions in the West.
This counterintuitive result may be due to changes in vegetation, soil moisture, or wind patterns in dust-source areas—factors that don’t always move in step with regional aridity. “It’s a complex interaction of weather, land use, and surface conditions,” Naple explained. “Drier soil doesn’t always mean more dust.”
The study underscores the importance of developing more accurate tools to monitor and forecast the impact of dust on snowmelt. Although satellite observations provide a real-time picture of dust’s effects, researchers still can’t predict dust storms before they happen.
“If we can better understand what triggers major dust events—things like vegetation cover, soil conditions, and wind speeds—we’ll be in a much better position to forecast how the snowpack will respond,” said Skiles.
In a region where every drop counts, knowing how dust alters the timing and magnitude of snowmelt could be key to managing the Colorado River’s fragile future.
